Droughts, heat waves, tropical cyclones. Australian rivers all but dried up, glaciers melting away in the Arctic, Amazon rainforests dying, Ozone holes popping up all over Europe. The signs of climate change are becoming increasingly more obvious, although critics maintain warming of the Earth’s atmosphere happens in cycles and will be gone as quickly as it appeared. But then the signs have been around for a while.
This week, government leaders, scientists and activists will convene in Copenhagen, Denmark, for the 15tth annual United Nations Climate Change Conference. The objective? Establishing a global climate change agreement to come into effect in 2012, when the first period of the Kyoto Protocol runs out, and developed countries will no longer be committed to reducing their Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. 192 countries are expected to be represented at the conference.
During a series of negotiation meetings ahead of the conference, emission reduction targets have been discussed at length: the European Union could be expected to cut at least 20 per cent of their emissions (based on 1990 levels) by 2020. Meanwhile, the USA are expected to announce a 17 per cent cut from 2005 levels, with more ambitious reductions in the future; while China could be seen cutting CO2 emissions by around 40 per cent by 2020. Yet despite this positive outlook, critics have already voiced their doubts about the outcome of the summit, claiming it will be all talk and no action, that committing to a new scheme would be put off until a later date.
“The average global temperature has been rising since the start of the industrial revolution,” said the University of Manchester’s Kevin Anderson, Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at a debate earlier this year.
“The collapse of the Soviet Union brought levels down – not that I’m recommending that.”
GHG emissions of industrialising nations like India virtually exploding over the last decade are often cited as the reason why the situation has worsened considerably, however they are doing what the developed world has been doing for the past 150 years – they are catching up. Accordingly, under the Kyoto protocol industrialising nations weren’t punished, or their growth slowed down in order to reduce carbon output, instead developed notions committed to reducing theirs. According to Anderson’s research, a mere 2°C global temperature increase is already “impossible to achieve,” and to restrict global warming to 3-4°C, “change is needed very fast.”
“If Copenhagen can be part of a process that delivers significant reductions in one year that’s in good time,” said Anderson. “It’s not a done deal, not yet.”
UNFCCC
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is an international treaty to tackle climate change. Coming into effect in 1994, the UNFCCC has been ratified by 192 countries including the USA, UK and most of Europe. The framework helps governments to share information on greenhouse gas emissions and policies, launch schemes for reducing emissions and cope with consequences, including technological and financial support for developing countries. Assessing the progress in dealing with climate change, Conferences of the Parties (COP) meetings happen annually; Copenhagen marks the 15th COP.
Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement that binds the 40 most developed countries to reducing their Green House Gas emissions in order to trim down global greenhouse gas emissions by 5% between 2008-2012. While linked to the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol goes a step further in not just encouraging countries to reduce their emissions, but committing them to it. Adopted in 1997, the Protocol only came into force in 2005. Controversially, the USA are taking part in the bid to reduce GHG emissions, but have only signed the Protocol, not ratified it, hence they are not bound to the agreement.
What’s predictable: The consequences of global warming
Droughts and flooding – While contradictory at first glance, drought and flooding do go hand in hand; the extra water ‘disappearing’ from one area as it evaporates in warmer temperatures will inevitable come down elsewhere as extra precipitation, the excess rain causing floods.
Ice and Snow – More than just no snow at Christmas, higher temperatures mean ice and snow caps are melting, taking with it crucial sources of drinking water in the mountains, as well as the natural habitat of animals.
Rising Sea Levels – Melting water does have to go somewhere, the rapidly shrinking glaciers causing sea levels to rise, and land to disappear. Another reason for rising sea levels is that water takes up more space as it gets warmer, while fragile sea life can die, unable to cope with higher water temperatures.
Extreme Weather – Heat waves, increased rain, more and harder storms, shifting monsoons and devastating tsunamis are all predicted to worsen over time.
