IT WAS only six months ago that Burma basked in the ignominious spotlight of the latest global crisis. Thousands of peaceful, saffron robed Buddhist monks, later joined by civilians, marched in protest against the guns and riot gear of the Burmese army. They were marching in protest against the intolerable conditions experienced by ordinary Burmese, caused by a military junta which showed no regards for human rights, governed through fear and corruption and whose chronic economic mismanagement had crippled the once prosperous country. So what happened next?
Those of you familiar with Burmese history will know that happy endings are not our forté. Despite rumours of dissent in the ranks and splits between the top generals, the army prevailed. They crushed the uprising by killing and beating up monks and civilians on the streets of Yangon, raided monasteries to punish agitators, and posted armed details outside places of worship. The U.N. were rendered impotent and failed to even meet the head of the junta, General Than Shwe. Slowly and painfully, things returned to normal as Burma slipped off the news radar. The saffron revolution had failed and Burma was once again forgotten.
However, in a surprising twist, the junta announced in February that the constitution, which began to be drafted fourteen years ago, was complete and that there would be a referendum held in May to ratify it, followed by a general election two years later to allow for a civilian government. Could this be a real opportunity for Burmese democracy?
Unfortunately, things are never this simple in Burma. The proposed constitution is a sham that only serves to legitimise further military rule. Some of the features include a guaranteed 25 percent of parliamentary seats for military representatives and no role for Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD party (yes, the woman U2 sang about). It should be noted that the NLD won the previous election in 1990 but the junta simply refused to recognise the result. Furthermore, the military and its milieu of civil servants and family members represent a significant proportion of the population. If they get their way there will be a ‘yes’ vote in the referendum and their civilian political party, the USDA, will win the general election.
This is what is most likely to happen. No one seriously believes that this will be a free and fair referendum. Nor do they believe it will be a free and fair election. The military have shown they hold all the cards and they are not going to give them up. They are only presenting an illusion of choice; a pretence of democracy or further indefinite totalitarianism. Either way, the military will still be in charge.
The future is uncertain; Burma is a country blessed with many resources, both natural and human. The country has all the ingredients to develop, and develop quickly, even under a semi-democratic political set-up. Whether this will happen depends on how willing the military, the de facto political elite, are prepared to embrace the 21st century. Human rights violations must stop. Management of the economy and other functions of government must be left to experts, not soldiers. There is of course still the possibility of another people’s revolution; but after 46 years and countless attempts, all of which have been put down through bloodshed, it is an unlikely scenario.
So what can you do to help? Twenty years ago, a similar failed revolution ended in the barbaric slaughter of 10,000 innocent protestors. The crackdown six months ago ended in relatively less brutal scenes. Using the power of the internet, the outside world was able to see what was happening in the country. The junta knew that the world would not stand for another massacre and showed comparative restraint. If these latest developments of an illegitamate government are to provide fertile ground for reconciliation, the generals must be aware that the world is watching and will not tolerate further misrule. So keep looking out for us in the papers, search us up on Wiki and join those Facebook groups. The West may not have much leverage other than popular opinion, but even that in itself is a powerful tool and hopefully it can be used to ensure that our struggle and all those who died are not forgotten.
Comment
Have your say, tell us what you think...